Interview with Thomas Gift, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Centre on US Politics, University College London

What did you make of Donald Trump’s win in South Carolina on Saturday (Feb. 24th)?

What struck me most about Trump’s victory in South Carolina was just how big the margin was — roughly 20 points — despite him hardly campaigning there. A few months ago, if you’d told Nikki Haley’s team that it would secure a one-on-one matchup against Trump in South Carolina, that would have been the dream scenario. You’d have expected a slugfest, with Haley maybe even tipping the scales in a state where she once had an 80-plus percent approval rating as governor. Instead, we got a total knockout punch by Trump.

It’s important to remember, these early primary states were juiced for Haley. New Hampshire has a strong independent streak, and South Carolina is Haley’s home state. If Haley couldn’t win in either of those primaries, she’s not going to win elsewhere. Which is to say, we’ve already seen peak Haley—and peak Haley is her losing to Trump by 20 to 30 points. Super Tuesday is where it could get even more lopsided. Soon, Haley will have to face the reality of Trump’s coronation.

Why do you think Nikki Haley is vowing to stay in the race?

The cynical assessment is that Haley is being used as a pawn of never-Trump donors who think she can bloody Trump’s nose in advance of the general election. But this isn’t convincing. Trump’s only gaining momentum from these massive blowout wins. And it’s not like Haley has been a strong voice of moral clarity against MAGA. She’s taken the velvet gloves off in attacking Trump lately. But she also said just days ago she’d pardon Trump if elected. More than likely, Haley’s staying in the race because she’s hoping that Trump’s legal difficulties catch up to him, and she’ll win by forfeit. But there are problems with this, too. The Manhattan “hush-money” trial won’t start for another month and will likely run until May. Most of the primary delegates will already be allocated by then. Plus, New York Times polling shows that upwards of 60 percent of Republicans would still favor Trump as the nominee even if he’s convicted. So, it’s hard to justify Haley’s continued candidacy.

Is there any chance Haley will run as a third-party candidate? 

Haley’s denied interest, but it’s an intriguing possibility. Keeping that ball in the air might be an additional reason for Haley to stay in the race. A lot comes down to what Haley wants. As a third-party candidate, it’s clear she’d threaten Trump in the general election. I’m less convinced she could win. She’s still a bread-and-butter Republican, and it’s hard to imagine many Democrats supporting her. If Haley’s goal is to blow up the MAGAverse, that’s one thing. But she’d be kissing her future in the Republican party goodbye. That said, her staying in the primaries has likely already made her a persona non grata in any future Trump White House. So maybe she has nothing to lose. That Haley could run as a third-party candidate is at least one reason why Trump might want to tread carefully. In his South Carolina victory speech, Trump made no digs at Haley, unlike in the past. Maybe he doesn’t want to give her campaign credibility. But maybe he doesn’t want to poke the bear.

Did South Carolina portend any worries for Trump? 

Trump is firing on all cylinders right now, and remarkably, he’s running a somewhat disciplined campaign (or as disciplined as a campaign as you can expect for someone who still fires off unhinged Truth Social posts on a seemingly hourly basis). When it comes to what right-wing voters want, no one speaks their language better than Trump. That said, there are still some concerning numbers for Trump coming out of South Carolina. Exit polling showed that about 1 in 10 primary voters cast their ballot for Haley not as an affirmative vote for her, but as a negative vote against Trump. Even more, about 3 in 10 said they’d not be satisfied with Trump as their nominee. That’s a nontrivial fraction who you’d imagine either won’t show up in November or might vote for Joe Biden. This is why Trump’s eager to sew up the nomination. He knows the base is behind him. But he has more work to do in courting college-educated Republicans, well-off suburban voters, and women.

Thomas Gift is Associate Professor of Political Science at UCL, where he is director of the Centre on US Politics (CUSP)