By Aly Kamadia, Editor-In-Chief, iDose

Dear Readers,

Want to hear something absurd before I make a few brief comments on the potential economic recession and inflation that’s robbing your pockets?

On January 3^rd, 2023, the CBC in Canada came out with a headline titled, “By 9:43 am, Canada’s richest CEOs have already earned the average worker’s annual salary.” Given that January 1^st was a holiday, and January 2^nd was a paid holiday, these CEOs pocketed the average workers yearly salary in 43 minutes.

Canada’s economic inequality may not be as horrific as America’s or the United Kingdom’s, but it is a pity that many of our political and economic elites keep supporting neoliberal policies that harm many average Canadians.

That said, a few quick notes about current economic realities.

There’s been a lot of talk about inflation in the year that we just said goodbye to, and rightly so. The US experienced an estimated inflation rate of 6.5% in 2022, while Canada’s number was 6.3 % (both December numbers, 12 month). This was felt, for example, when many of you dealt with ridiculous grocery and gasoline prices in 2022.

What’s being done about the situation?

While yours truly is not an economist, some of the ones that I’ve consulted with regarding inflation in the US and Canada are optimistic when looking at the most recent monthly numbers (December), coupled with the relatively positive numbers in the second half of 2022.

Only a fool would declare that worrisome inflation is over, but it’s important to note that recent data has been positive.

That said, if we use his most recent commentary to predict interest rate movements, US federal reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who is hawk on inflation, looks like he’ll definitely raise the US federal funds rate in a couple of weeks. Most economists and anlysts seem to believe that the Bank of Canada will raise rates as well (though perhaps not as much).

They also believe that there will be a mild to moderate recession (in both countries).

Of course, a skeptic may object to what “most economists and analysts believe” by pointing out that almost all of them, including those who subscribe to very different ideologies, were simply dead wrong throughout 2022.

Which is one mere example of why I love skeptics. Last year provided yet another reminder that well credentialed people are hardly immune from delivering forcasts that are detached from the realities of planet Earth.

Making matters worse, the mainstream media is almost always portraying inflation as an issue that the federal reserve can always solve with the exclusive use of monetary policy.

That view is factually incorrect, unless, as an example, Jerome Powell has a magic wand that will dictate the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war – let alone geopolitical events altogether.

And while I do believe there is a high liklihood of a recession, I don’t view the if question as the central concern. Rather, the more timely question is whether the Federal Reserve and/or the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates excessively and/or keep them too high for too long, and dissementate unneeded economic pain as a result (admittedly, this aspect of monetary policy seems to be a very delicate balancing act).

Since I’ve already made this newsletter too long, I’ll leave it at that, along with two final comments.

The January issue of iDose includes articles by eminent thinkers making predictions about the future. While the future is inherently uncertain, I nevertheless ran a few such pieces because even if the authors get it wrong, the articles are worth reading.

Finally, as the editor-in-chief of iDose, a publication that remains allergic to BS during an age of heightened propaganda flooding our phones, tvs and laptops, thank you for your continued and immense support, which includes all the comments and questions that you send.

We wish you a fantastic 2023 and beyond!