By Joschka Fischer, Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor of Germany, 1998 to 2005

The peaceful handover of presidential power has been a political norm in the United States since the end of George Washington’s second term 228 years ago. Notwithstanding a bloody civil war in the 1860s, this tradition has been a hallmark of stability, establishing the US as the modern world’s oldest democracy. As the country’s international influence grew, especially after the twentieth century’s two world wars, its system of governance increasingly became a model for others.

But America’s status and role in the world will change with Donald Trump’s second inauguration. The occasion comes four years after Trump tried to overturn the results of a free and fair election. He has made clear that he wants much more than just a change of personnel or policy in Washington. His real objective – however thinly veiled – is to transform the US system from a democracy into one ruled by the wealthy and powerful – what former President Joe Biden, in his farewell address, rightly called an “oligarchy.”

Already, one can see the contours of an authoritarian oligarchy emerging. The close alliance between Trump, soon to be the world’s most powerful man (again), and Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, was an unambiguous signal of this shift.

Musk contributed more than $200 million to Trump’s campaign, and that investment has already paid off handsomely. Both believe that the rich and powerful should rule, with their prerogatives taking precedence over the rule of law and constitutional governance. They reject the pursuit of equality and hope to see the complete removal of all boundaries between economic and political power, with dynasties replacing democracy.

Silicon Valley’s groveling before Trump was to be expected. Although the other titans of the tech industry most likely have no intention of simply handing the reins of the White House to Musk, they clearly share the same vision of an oligarchic future. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, for example, co-hosted a party for Trump’s inauguration with billionaire Republican donors.

If Trump succeeds in effecting this shift, democracy will be imperiled worldwide. After all, the US, with its unrivaled political, military, and economic strength, has historically been the bulwark of democracy. Though never a perfect exemplar of democratic values, it has promoted and protected them on the international stage more consistently than any other power. But those days are probably gone.

Even if Europe managed to resist being divided by the new oligarchs – a tall order, given the European Union’s fragility in the face of resurgent nationalism – it could hardly fill America’s shoes.

What, realistically, could Europeans do if a neo-imperialist Trump administration coerces Denmark into handing over Greenland? The sobering answer, we all know, is very little.

Europeans never expected much good to come from another Trump presidency. But few here, including me, anticipated Trump’s pre-inauguration pivot toward imperialism and revisionist territorial claims backed by the threat of violence against a NATO ally. This development exceeded my most pessimistic expectations. It was bad enough that Europe would be left to deal with Russia’s neo-imperialist aggression on its own. Now, it will be squeezed by neo-imperialist powers from both sides.

Trump’s threatening statements about Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal (he has also proposed military intervention in Mexico) do at least clarify where America stands. No longer can anyone harbor any illusions about what his return to power means.

What more will it take for Europeans to recognize the implications of today’s shifting geopolitical terrain? The age of raw power politics is here. Henceforth, the course of world affairs will be dictated by the dominant superpowers, not rules, norms, or traditions.

If Europe clings to its cherished conception of sovereign nation-states, it will relegate itself to the status of a middling power – or worse. Already facing economic and technological decline, its aging societies will be fully at the mercy of outside powers that do not have their best interests at heart. Europe would no longer count as a global power that is capable of shaping its own destiny.

Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are forcing the old Europe to decide, here and now, which future it wants. Europe has the technological skills, expertise, and financial resources to defend its interests in the twenty-first century. But that cannot compensate for what Europe lacks most: the political will to act as a cohesive power on the world stage.

If Europeans are going to secure their own future, they can no longer afford merely to talk about it.

They must do it.

Joschka Fischer was Germany’s Foreign minister and Vice Chancellor from 1998 to 2005. He was also a leader of the German Green Party for almost 20 years.

©Project Syndicate 2025