By Aly Kamadia, Editor-In-Chief, iDose

As some economies throughout the planet reopen, it’s important to keep your guard up and exercise a high degree of caution. While there are many reasons to do so, below I’ll briefly outline three.

Next waves of Coronavirus could be deadly

COVID-19 has often been compared to the 1918/1919 Influenza Pandemic (aka “Spanish Flu”). Claiming the lives of tens of millions, an interesting observation of the 1918 Influenza was the manner in which death haunted humanity: the virus swept across the planet in three waves, with the first not nearly as deadly as the second.

Emerging in August 1918, the second wave virtually brought the world to its knees and claimed many more lives than the initial or third wave. (Upper estimates suggest a total death toll of 50 to nearly 100 million lives for the entire Pandemic.)

It would be baseless to predict that a 1918 scenario awaits us. Though entirely conceivable, on the other hand, that any country may be forced to confront the threat of different waves (whether in a mutated form or not).

Thus countries should prepare accordingly.       

“Successful” countries are seeing new cases following economic easing

Though we should be mindful that even the most strategic planning can suffer from fundamental setbacks (or worse). 

For instance, countries that have been aggressively testing and tracing have nevertheless seen increasing cases after reopening parts of their economy. The current lead article in the New York Times (digital, a day before this iDose article goes to press) is titled, “New clusters emerge in countries praised for successful coronavirus fights”.

While the number of new cases in countries such as Singapore, China, South Korea and Germany should not be exaggerated, the topic in the introductory sentence of the NYT piece is worth keeping on your radar:

Several nations that have been hailed for curbing the spread of the pandemic are finding that victory over the coronavirus can be elusive and fleeting – especially after they start lifting lockdowns.

If ‘victory’ over COVID-19 is difficult even after employing relatively aggressive testing and tracing, how might the prospect of ‘victory’ look like in countries with insufficient testing and tracing? What about nations that have been downright irresponsible?

Some Governments are being completely negligent

Some have reminded me that a few US governors and mayors have shown leadership as the crisis strengthened its grip on America and its communities.

True.

Though the fact remains that too many political ‘leaders’ remain unethical idiots.

In the face of such morons, it’s vital that scientific authorities and intellectuals be crystal clear in their communications with the public. Thus we should embrace the director of the (US) National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who in testifying to a Senate health committee hearing earlier today, warned everyone that if states or cities disregarded safety guidelines, they would, “trigger an outbreak that [they] might not be able to control”.

To be clear, Dr. Anthony Fauci (i.e. the aforementioned director) isn’t some sort of god whose opinions are superior to all other scientists and intellectuals. But his warnings are perfectly obvious to anyone with a finger on the pulse of the situation, and some merit repeating:

[Downplaying safety guidelines will] not only [lead] to some suffering and death that could be avoided, but that could even set you back on the road to try to get economic recovery. Because it could almost turn the clock back rather than going forward. That is my major concern.

One can understand Fauci’s diplomatic tone given his position. Though as someone without such constraints, let me remind the reader that only a fool or blind optimist would deny the immense power that sheer stupidity might play in fueling further suffering and deaths. That it remains on full display in many countries (including the US) hardly puts one at ease. 

Taken together, the second and unrelenting wave of 1918, reemergence of COVID-19 while economies reopen, and rolling the dice with peoples’ lives by downplaying/ignoring safety guidelines all help strengthen the call that we should remain vigilant.

Despite the initial psychological comfort that we may experience due to the economy being reopened, this is hardly the time to pretend things are back to ‘normal’. Indeed, the meaning thereof remains to be defined.   

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Aly Kamadia is Editor-In-Chief of iDose. To read selected articles by Kamadia, click here.