By Aly Kamadia, Editor-In-Chief, iDose

iDose continues to receive tons of questions about COVID-19.  While it’s impossible to even begin to address all of them, I have selected three for this week.

1.How Many People Will Get Infected?

Perhaps it’s a part of our nature to crave certainty. Thus it’s hardly surprising to starve for specific numbers: How many people will get killed? How many people will get infected?

While leading intellectuals and scientists are indispensable in the war on COVID-19 (among many other actors), they aren’t prophets. Though in terms of forecasting, many credible institutions and people are engaging with all sorts of modelling. 

One example is the Imperial College London, easily among the most eminent Universities on the planet. Some of the more conservative numbers in a recent report read that in North America alone, roughly 20 million people will be infected. Their less conservative estimates show that in North America alone, tens of millions will be infected.

Twenty million is certainly a possibility. 

Dr. Anthony Fauci, who often appears in President Trump’s daily briefings and is certainly a credible and intelligent voice, recently estimated the American death toll to be 100 000 – 200 000. Fauci was extremely careful in throwing out the number, qualifying his remarks by stating that it might be achieved only if both the government and people adhere to an intelligent strategy. 

Given that the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (i.e. Fauci) estimates a mortality rate of about 1%, Fauci is basically telling us that the United States should expect about 10 million to 20 million people being infected. And that is if a sensible strategy is followed by both the government and people.

To reiterate a familiar point, the assumptions underlying the results of any such modelling are fragile at best.  

2. Once COVID-19 passes, hopefully in a month or two, I can go out and resume my life as usual, right?

Not necessarily.

On one hand, there are some positive signs. In South Korea, while the curve isn’t flat, the number of new cases isn’t skyrocketing, like many parts of the Western world (e.g. United States, United Kingdom, Canada). In China, the curve has flattened, meaning virtually no new cases. Though when it comes to China’s numbers, many experts question their credibility (e.g. national security experts, macroeconomists, etc.). 

On the other hand, too little is known about the nature of the virus and its trajectory to predict that it’ll soon pass and ‘life as usual’ will automatically resume. Such thinking ignores the mutations and waves that can occur (which will be discussed in the next issue or two). Not to mention that without a vaccine, containing the virus through physical distancing and other social responses remain our most powerful weapons.

Moreover, history has shown that major events can carve out all sorts of new realities. The question of how any country, or even the world in general might change after this global pandemic is an open one, and too lengthy to speculate upon here. But a familiar cliche does come to mind: “Man plans, God laughs”. 

3. Could our political leaders have been more prepared for this Global Pandemic?

HELL YEAH!!! WE COULD HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE PREPARED!!! AND YES, MANY OF OUR POLITICAL ‘LEADERS’ ARE COMPLETELY INCOMPETENT.

Before elaborating, let me apologize to readers for being excessively diplomatic and polite in the preceding sentence. 

Political leaders in ‘advanced’ countries, though not limited to them (say the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada), were warned over and over and over about being prepared for inevitable pandemics. Such warnings came from scientists, intellectuals, health care professionals, and many many others. (It wasn’t just one Ted Talk by Bill Gates). 

Even for cynics, the sheer stupidity of too many political leaders remains impressive until the present day.  

As recent as March 3rd, which was four weeks ago, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was publicly stating that “the risk remains low” for Canadians (apparently we’re not so special). President Trump’s statements remain all over the map, including labeling COVID-19 a “hoax” (on a side note, Trump’s job approval rating has never been higher). UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson initially proceeded with a strategy that didn’t resemble the rest of the Western world. It was remarkable to see that the so called ‘evidence’ for Johnson’s strategy was being hidden from leading scientists, practitioners and intellectuals all over the country. Hundreds of them signed an open letter published in the Times (UK) questioning, among other things, the move to not take social distancing seriously.  

One such authority is the Editor-In-Chief of The Lancet Richard Horton (one of the most prestigious medical journals on the planet), who is still (understandably) furious about the horrific realities that people in England are facing because of gross incompetence.

In a commentary appearing in the Lancet published a few days ago, accurately titled Offline: COVID-19 and the NHS – “a national scandal”, Horton begins by quoting a National Health Service (i.e. NHS) employee who stated, “When this is all over, the NHS England board should resign in their entirety”. 

He also incorporates quotes from various emails he received that paint the current picture haunting England:

 “It’s terrifying for staff at the moment. Still no access to personal protective equipment [PPE] or testing.” “Rigid command structures make decision making impossible.” “There’s been no guidelines, it’s  chaos.” “I don’t feel safe. I don’t feel protected.” “We are literally making it up as we go along.” “It feels as if we are actively harming patients.” “We need protection and prevention.” “Total carnage.” “NHS Trusts continue to fail miserably.” “Humanitarian crisis.” “Forget lockdown—we are going into meltdown.” “When I was country director in many conflict zones, we had better preparedness.” “The hospitals in London are overwhelmed.” “The public and media are not aware that today we no longer live in a city with a properly functioning western health-care system.” “How will we protect our patients and staff…I am speechless. It is utterly unconscionable. How can we do this? It is criminal…NHS England was not prepared… We feel completely helpless.” 

As I’ve remarked in the past, benign intentions are never an excuse for utter stupidity, particularly at such high levels of government, and not least during a global pandemic. 

Lest any readers be tempted to accuse me of naïveté , I am under no delusions that the current misfortunes could have been completely avoided. 

Yet the virtue of having a functioning brain allows one to witness that while COVID-19 begins to sweep the globe, excessive suffering and even deaths owe at least some of their thanks to overconfident morons.  

Aly Kamadia is Editor-In-Chief of iDose. To read more articles by Kamadia, click here. To read the Editor’s message, click here.

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